A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
